Posted By Kevin Baron

Alex Thier, the Afghanistan czar at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), is leaving his post at the end of next week.

Thier, assistant to the administrator for the Office of Afghanistan and Pakistan Affairs, is moving on up to head the agency's Bureau for Policy, Planning, and Learning, "where he will apply his expertise and leadership with Afghanistan and Pakistan more broadly across the agency," USAID spokesman Ben Edwards said.

Thier, in statement provided to the E-Ring, said, "I'm eager to take on the challenge of pushing forward the innovative and ambitious reforms the Administrator Rajiv Shah has enacted in order to increase USAID's development impact around the world. "These include partnering with local organizations to increase the long term sustainability of USAID programs as we have already been doing in Afghanistan and Pakistan."

Thier's deputy Larry Sampler, senior deputy assistant to the Administrator in the Office of Afghanistan and Pakistan Affairs, will take over as "acting" boss.

Thier is one of the most well known names on Afghanistan in Washington, having lived there for about seven years and previously directed the Af-Pak program at the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP).

His Twitter handle is even @Thierstan. Anyone who has sat with him has felt his passion for Afghanistan, and the progress one of the poorest countries in the world has made. For him, it's a far different narrative from the "progress" usually assigned to the war, instead of the country or its people.

In an email, Thier explained:

"Afghanistan and Pakistan have made enormous progress in the last few years, despite the continued challenges they face. As I transition to this new position at USAID, I am heartened by the remarkable transitions occurring in both countries. I lived through the civil war in Afghanistan in the 1990s, and the results of our investments in partnership with the Afghan people since the fall of the Taliban have yielded enormous results by any objective indicator. Life expectancy up by 15-20 years, average incomes tripled, government revenues grown 1000% in over a decade. This came from a partnership with the Afghan people that focuses heavily on accountability and sustainability - helping the Afghans transition to a more self-sufficient and secure future. 

In Pakistan, the historic elections this week have moved that country further along a path of democracy and good governance that they will need to solve their significant economic, energy, and security challenges. We reframed our efforts in Pakistan to leverage our resources through partnerships with the government and private sector - like a program with Nestlé that is linking poor women dairy farmers with agribusiness. In both countries, we have also dramatically increased our investment and focus on women - as no country can succeed without half it's population fully engaged in the economic, social, and political life of the nation."

 

Posted By Kevin Baron

The Pentagon's senior policy official on Afghanistan and Pakistan is leaving his post at the end of this month.

David Sedney, deputy assistant secretary of defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia, will quit the Pentagon effective May 31, the E-Ring has confirmed. Sedney's successor will be Navy Reserve Rear Adm. Michael J. Dumont, who currently serves as chief of staff, U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa, and deputy chief of staff for strategy, resources, and plans at the same command. DOD policy denizen Jennifer Walsh will fill the seat in the short interim.

Dumont has extensive Af-Pak experience. He was chief of staff of the Office of the U.S. Defense Representative to Pakistan (ODRP) and then served as deputy chief of staff for stability operations at the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Joint Command.

Sedney is one of the longest serving DASDs in the Pentagon's policy team and has become a regular sidekick to defense secretaries and top officials traveling through Afghanistan and the region. Previously he was the DASD for East Asia, from 2007 to 2009. In Kabul, Sedney has served as both deputy chief of mission and charge d'affaires at the United States Embassy from 2003-2004. 

Besides Princeton, Sedney also gradated from the National War College and is most likely the only person in the Pentagon -- if not the country -- who speaks Romanian, Mandarin Chinese and Azerbaijani.

"David is a national treasure in the Washington policy community," said Pentagon press secretary George Little, "and has served in an exceptional manner as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Afghanistan and Pakistan.  He's held prior stints in China, Romania, Azerbaijian, and Taiwan. He'll be missed by his colleagues here and his counterparts overseas.  In particular, when it comes to Afghanistan, I've personally heard him say that our troops always come first."

  Correction: This post originally misspelled Michael Dumont's last name.

DOD photo

Jeh Johnson, the Pentagon’s top lawyer until three months ago, is skeptical of the need for a so-called drone court.

Johnson, who personally approved the legal authority behind every major military strike ordered by the secretary of defense and President Obama until January 1, says the U.S. military is best equipped to conduct targeted killings of terrorism suspects abroad, without the need for a new court.

This morning, Johnson, who has returned to private practice, is at Fordham University to deliver a speech that he bills as the first to tackle the pros and cons of such a court. Johnson directly challenges advocates of the idea, including senators calling for more oversight and transparency, such as Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), intelligence committee chairwoman, and his old boss, former Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

Legal authority for targeted strikes against terrorism suspects that are conducted by the military is already in place, Johnson argues. What is needed, he offers, is more transparency around how those suspects are identified. Some secrets about targeted operations, Johnson claims, can be revealed without compromising national security.

“Most people, I think, do not have a quarrel with the bottom-line conclusions and results,” Johnson says in the speech, an advance copy of which was obtained by The E-Ring. “The problem is that the American public is suspicious of executive power shrouded in secrecy.”

Because U.S. officials will not confirm targeted killings even though they are widely reported by the media, the government is losing the trust and support of the public it is trying to protect, Johnson claims. But, even though an oversight court may sound like a good idea because judges are thought to be fairer than White House politicos, Johnson argues that a new court would be problematic and unnecessary -- at least for the military.

“We must be realistic about the degree of added credibility such a court can provide,” he said. Those few cases that would require the court’s approval likely would be kept secret anyway, and most of those cases still would be approved. The current FISA, or foreign intelligence court, is “derided” as a rubber stamp by the same groups calling for a new drone court, he notes.

Johnson analyzes three possible versions of a drone court and argues why all three would fail. A court that reviews all desired strikes away from a battlefield and against terrorists, including by the military, would be a logjam and require too much evidence to act in real time. A court that reviewed only the evidence for strikes against U.S. citizens abroad would require an impractical standard of intelligence, essentially forcing the government prove it knows the exact nationality of every target, American or not.

Finally, Johnson offers his least bad option: a court that would review and approve lethal force only against terrorists known to be U.S. citizens “but only in instances not part of a congressionally-authorized armed conflict conducted by the U.S. military.” In other words, this court would review killings of Americans abroad conducted by the CIA or other non-military agencies.

“In my view targeted lethal force is at its least controversial when it is on its strongest, most traditional legal foundation. The essential mission of the U.S. military is to capture or kill an enemy. Armies have been doing this for thousands of years. As part of a congressionally-authorized armed conflict, the foundation is even stronger.”

“Lethal force outside the parameters of congressionally-authorized armed conflict by the military looks to the public to lack any boundaries, and lends itself to the suspicion that it is an expedient substitute for criminal justice.”

Johnson also notes that courts are not equipped to decide “questions of feasibility of capture and imminence,” which can change rapidly.

Finally, he argues, the president has the constitutional authority to use force, and the debate over killing terrorists one-by-one seems to naively forget that the president has sole authority to launch a nuclear strike that could kill millions of people.

“Article II of the Constitution states that the President ‘shall’ be the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. That is his burden and responsibility,” Johnson argues. “He may delegate his war-fighting authority within his chain of command, but he cannot assign part of it away to another branch of government, nor have it taken away by an act of Congress.”

In the end, Johnson says more transparency will go a long way, if administration officials are willing to find that path.

“Put 10 national security officials in a room to discuss de- classifying a certain fact, they will all say I’m for transparency in principle, but at least 7 will be concerned about second-order effects, someone will say ‘this is really hard, we need to think about this some more,’ the meeting is adjourned, and the 10 officials go on to other more pressing matters.

“Last year we declassified the basics of the U.S. military’s counterterrorism activities in Yemen and Somalia and disclosed what we were doing in a June 2012 War Powers report to Congress. It was a long and difficult deliberative process to get there, but certain people in the White House persevered, we said publicly and officially what we were doing, and, so far as I can tell, the world has not come to an end.”

You can read the full speech here:

MASSOUD HOSSAINI/AFP/Getty Images

Posted By Kevin Baron

One of the military’s rising stars just got even brighter. Maj. Gen. Michael Nagata is being assigned to command special operations forces across Central Command, the military’s geographic command stretching from the Middle East to Pakistan.

Nagata first gained attention as deputy of the U.S. military contingent in Islamabad, Pakistan, or the Office of the Defense Representative to Pakistan (ODRP). There, Nagata earned a reputation as a brighter-than-most, frank-talking officer who often impressed top brass and military reporters with his assessments of the ground situation in the region throughout the halting relationship between the U.S. and Pakistani militaries.  

From there, Nagata was brought to the Pentagon, where he is currently deputy director for special operations on the Joint Staff, earning his second star just last September in a ceremony that drew some big names, including former Gen. David Petraeus. 

One glowing review comes from retired Lt. Gen. Frank Kearney, who held the post Nagata is about to step into at Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT). Kearney later rose to deputy commander of Special Operations Command (SOCOM) and then deputy at National Counterterrorism Center. "Operating from the shadows in support of the fight against al Qaeda and affiliate's senior leaders," he told the E-Ring, "General Nagata has developed inter-agency, country team and U.S. embassy relationships throughout CENTCOM and the Horn of Africa. This unassuming and affable leader with a lethal intellect has in-depth experience with IA partners, regional international SOF and intelligence partners, and integrated with his Special Forces background make him the perfect choice to lead all theater SOF forces in a networked partnership against CENTCOM's terrorist and conventional threats.

"Nagata's experience as the deputy ODRP in Pakistan and his current assignment as the deputy director for special operations in the J-3 shop of the Joint Staff have given him key insights to U.S. policy and earned him a reputation as a direct communicator with deep knowledge of players friend and foe in the region."

Now, he will command all special operators in arguably the most important region in the world for counterterrorism. While Mali and Algeria command current headlines, the Pentagon has focused intently on the region from the Arabian Peninsula to Pakistan as a hotbed for future counterterrorism operations. Nagata undoubtedly will use his old Islamabad contacts -- including with Army chief Gen. Parvez Kayani -- to press for keeping U.S. special operations forces as involved as the president desires.

"He's a quiet warrior. There's very few people in uniform today who have his depth of knowledge about the nature of the wars we've been fighting," said another military officer who is close to Nagata, but wished to remain anonymous. "He's been there, and he's led there and he's utterly brilliant. But you'll never hear him say it. I don't know of anyone who 'gets it' more than him when it comes to understanding the geo-political complexities of that part of the world."

As commander of Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT), Nagata will operate out of MacDill Air Force Base, Fla., which houses both Central Command and U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM).

He likely will still see plenty of Washington time, though. One of his superiors is SOCOM commander Adm. William McRaven who told the E-Ring at Foreign Policy’s 100 Global Thinkers Gala in November that he spends much of nearly every week working in Washington, face-to-face with President Obama and his top national security team leaders.

U.S. Army photo

Pentagon officials said the death of senior Taliban leader Maulvi Nazir, if true, would be a serious hit to terrorist groups in Pakistan fighting against U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

Nazir’s death by a U.S. drone missile strike was reported early Thursday by the Associated Press out of Pakistan. Pentagon officials typically do not comment on such drone strikes, which usually are carried out by the CIA and not the military, and on Thursday would not confirm the incident.

But George Little, Pentagon press secretary, did not hesitate to say Nazir’s death “would be a significant blow.” Little said he was unable to confirm Nazir's death independently, as of Thursday morning.

Nazir was believed to have an agreement with Pakistani authorities and was tolerated there because he directed attacks only at American and Afghan targets, and not Pakistanis, according to several reports. For that, Nazir is described in Thursday headlines as one of the “good Taliban” inside Pakistan, and the “sole” Taliban leader there willing to be a potential ally to Pakistani leaders, who remain frustrated the CIA targeted him.

In the Pentagon, Little was unapologetic.

"This is someone who has a great deal of blood on his hands," he said.

S.S MIRZA/AFP/Getty Images

Posted By Kevin Baron

U.S. intelligence and military officials are shaking their heads at a news report out of Pakistan this week claiming that Pakistani authorities possess a heretofore unknown personal diary of Osama bin Laden’s found at the terrorist’s Abbottabad compound after U.S. Navy SEALs completed their mission to kill the al Qaeda leader, but before the compound was demolished last year.

The U.S. team of 79 people, including SEAL Team 6, returned from the historic assault inside Pakistan on May 2, 2011, with a large trove of documents, including a handwritten diary of bin Laden’s that included operational instructions to the dispersed al Qaeda network, several U.S. news agencies reported at the time.

But the mention of a new bin Laden diary this week turned a few heads. The article, first published in The News International, which claims to be Pakistan’s largest English-language newspaper, and picked up by other South Asian news outlets, claims that in the diary bin Laden reveals he had bribed a local tax collector to permit the construction of the three-story building and high-walled compound in which the world’s most wanted terrorist hid for his final days.

“Pakistani officials discovered a diary in which Osama had described that he had to bribe the revenue officials for construction of his compound, which is a unique incident in the history when the Patwari [village accountant] had taken bribe from the most-wanted terrorist of the world,” the story reads.

“The Patwari was in complete ignorance about the identity of Osama when he was taking the bribe from him. But the diaries, which were translated, revealed that Osama was not only well aware of this practice but the bribe was also given with his permission.”

According to the story, the Patwari has been “arrested and investigated.”

The News International often publishes stories that align with the interest of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency, or ISI. But several U.S. intelligence and military officials with intimate knowledge of the mission contacted by the E-Ring were unaware of the purported diary.

“We do not have any way of knowing what information may have been missed during the sweep after the raid,” said Ken McGraw, deputy public affairs officer at U.S. Special Operations Command, which oversaw the SEAL team that conducted the raid and brought back a trove of documents and computer files after reportedly an estimated 38 minutes on the ground. “Special Operations Forces turn over all information collected during an operation to the intelligence community.”

A U.S. intelligence official with intimate knowledge of the raid, speaking anonymously, told the E-Ring, “I'm unaware of any such diary that was left at the Abbottabad compound.”

CIA officials declined to comment publicly on the foreign media report.

Warrick Page/Getty Images

As you watch tonight’s presidential debate between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on foreign policy, remember this: there are few things Americans care less about than foreign policy. And, conveniently, there are fewer things Americans know less about than foreign policy.

But Americans have opinions, nonetheless. Since 2010, there have been more Americans saying they wanted to pull troops out of Afghanistan as soon as possible than those saying the United States should stabilize that country first. By a roughly 60-30 percent gap, Americans are more worried about China’s economic strength than its military power. More than 60 percent have no faith that sanctions will sway Iran to give up its nuclear program. And more than 65 percent of Americans think the administration is treating Israel just fine. As for Russia, only 2 percent of Americans think it’s the greatest threat to the United States.

National security is not run by referendum, however. But keep those statistics and these others released last Friday in mind when Obama and Romney try to strike a balance tonight between looking like a strong commander-in-chief, but not one who is wasteful or itching to get the U.S. too involved around the world. Americans want a tough president, but one who is ready to focus his attention back home, according to the Pew Research Center’s latest findings.

What does that mean for these five issue areas that have been announced for tonight’s debate?

“America’s Role in the World”

This topic goes to the heart of the U.S. military’s footprint around world and how the next president intends to use it -- and never mind the militarization of foreign policy, because that’s a phrase barely mentioned in the Pentagon. Obama has presented Congress a five-year plan that offers a robust global counterterrorism presence with a significant downsizing of the Army and Marine Corps, a plan strongly backed by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and a pivot/rebalancing toward Asia. That means a leaner military. Defense spending could get aired out tonight here and it could be interesting. The brass are on record that they want to reset, refit, and retrain the force for the post-Iraq and Afghanistan world. Few are calling for what Romney is advocating: a significant increase in the troop presence in the Middle East and a 4 percent GDP-sized spending account for the Pentagon. More likely, the candidates will present their views in basest of terms: the open hand of Obama versus the “no apology” of Romney and American exceptionalism. But will they challenge each other?

“Our Longest War -- Afghanistan and Pakistan”

There is less daylight between Obama and Romney on any topic than Afghanistan. That’s mostly because Romney has not offered any different course other than promising to be more attentive to commanders on the ground, which allows him to imply Obama has not done so. In his Tampa acceptance speech, Romney didn’t mention Afghanistan. Republicans are divided over what to do there next. And even though Democrats by 98 percent think Obama’s pullout order too slow, the president gives Romney little room here. The U.S. and NATO are committed to the 2014 deadline -- whether you believe the U.S. will keep fighting that long or not. Unless moderator Bob Scheiffer draws something out of the candidates, those watching among the 67,000 troops in Afghanistan can expect little more than a rehashing of the justification for extending the war another two years.

Red Lines -- Israel and Iran”

Romney has tried most to distinguish himself as a better friend to Israel than Obama. But as they speak, the United States and Israel are preparing to begin a massive war game that’s unofficially geared as a united defense against an Iranian missile threat -- the expected response from Tehran should anyone try to knock out their nuclear program.  “Who loves Israel more?” is now staple campaign fare. Look for Obama tonight to defend his love for Israel and press Romney to say what, exactly, he’d do differently than the current administration. Look for Romney to allege that Obama’s sanctions-loving, Israel-ostracizing public posture is only making the region less stable.

“The Changing Middle East and the New Face of Terrorism”

Obama might use some of this time to explain just how extensively the Pentagon is preparing for or engaged in counterterrorism operations country-by-country across the Middle East and North Africa. U.S. officials are working the new post-Arab Awakening governments to secure relationships and military ties they’ll need to track and keep a thumb on al Qaeda and other extremists. Under Obama, security and stability still drives Middle East policy. Romney will likely continue to hit Obama on botching Benghazi, on not helping the Syrian rebels enough, and for allowing extremism to spread throughout the region. It could be the most interesting exchange of the night, especially if the president opts to highlight U.S. military activity in the region under his watch.

“The Rise of China and Tomorrow’s World”

For some national security watchers, this topic should be called “The Rise of China’s Military.” But it’s not, for a reason. Most Americans are far more concerned about China’s economic rise than they are about J-20 stealth fighter test runs. Romney has made trade with China a centerpiece of his campaign. Don’t expect a debate over strategic power here -- it’s probably the segment to step out and grab popcorn as the candidates discuss manufacturing jobs and currency manipulation. Or to flip over to what tens of millions of other Americans tonight will actually be paying close attention to: Monday Night Football.

Alex Wong/Getty Images

Posted By Kevin Baron

Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, does not like to take reporters on his overseas travels, but even the Pentagon press corps was surprised when he appeared in Afghanistan unannounced this week.

It had become standard practice in recent years that when the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff visits the war zone, he takes a rotation of reporters along with him. After all, he is the senior-most ranking U.S. military officer and senior military advisor to the president.

So in Thursday's Pentagon press briefing, Dempsey was asked to explain why he kept this visit secret.

"I kept it under wraps because I was afraid you all would ask to come with me," he said, jokingly. He also did not take Col. David Lapan, his spokesman.

"No, I kept -- the truth is I originally planned to go to Pakistan to meet with [Pakistan's military chief] Gen. [Parvez] Kayani, and because of some of the issues related to that film, he and I discussed postponing that visit," he said. The two generals did postpone. "And then, with the available time I decided to extend my trip in Afghanistan."

But by Dempsey's own account, there appear to be few secrets that needed keeping on what amounted to a standard battlefield tour in Afghanistan and high-level meetings with President Hamid Karzai's new defense minster, interior minister, and two corps commanders.

Reading from a statement, he said, "I actually returned from Afghanistan just yesterday. While there, I visited our troops in Kandahar and in Helmand province. I walked the ground at Camp Bastion."

"I also met with coalition and Afghan leaders, and I tell you this, the Afghan forces are not only gaining capability, but they also are importantly gaining confidence."

"I'll also tell you that our Afghan partners are working with us to shut down the threat of insider attacks. As one Afghan army commander told me, insider attacks are an affront to their honor, at odds with their culture and their faith."

He later added, "I can tell you, without hesitation, they are taking this as seriously as we are."

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced at the briefing that partnered joint operations had returned to normal, after a pause initiated by war commander Gen. John Allen. But Panetta and Dempsey were unable to give an exact count or percentage of operations that entails. Before the pause, U.S. Officials frequently said that 90 percent of operations in Afghanistan were partnered with Afghan security forces.

Dempsey has proven to be a quieter chairman than many of his predecessors in recent tims. He spoke to the issue in January, telling National Journal he would not be rushing to get on the Daily Show, rather picking and choosing when he wanted to leverage the bully pulpit.

Indeed, it was not the first time Dempsey has left journalists behind, and it likely won't be the last. Reporters also were noticeably kept away during his swing through Southeast Asia this summer. He also did not take reporters on his previous overseas trip to a very public meeting of NATO military chiefs, held in Romania, at which NATO received an update on the Afghanistan war from International Security Assistance Force commander Gen. John Allen.That stop was followed by Dempsey's visit to Turkey, where the chairman talked with his counterparts on NATO's border about the Syrian civil war.

On that trip, Dempsey did give one interview, to the American Forces Press Service, an arm of the Pentagon's massive public relations apparatus. He even made news, calling the insider attacks a "very serious threat."

DOD photo by U.S. Army Staff Sgt. Sun L. Vega

Kevin Baron reports on the people and policies driving the Pentagon and the national security establishment in The E-Ring.

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